卫龙美味(9985.HK)首次覆盖报告：辣味零食龙头地位稳固 魔芋高增打开空间

Company Analysis - The company is a leader in the spicy snack food sector, with a strong market position in both spicy strips and konjac products, creating competitive barriers through brand, product, and channel advantages [1] - The company’s revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 81.9 billion, 96.7 billion, and 111.2 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 30.6%, 18.2%, and 14.9% respectively [1] - Net profit is expected to reach 14.7 billion, 18.5 billion, and 22.8 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 37.1%, 26.0%, and 23.6% respectively, leading to corresponding PE ratios of 17.2X, 13.7X, and 11.1X [1] - The company’s main products include spicy snacks, vegetable products, and bean products, with vegetable products projected to account for 53.8% of revenue in 2024, growing by 59.1% year-on-year [1][2] - The company has maintained a leading market share of approximately 30% in the spicy strip market, with a significant lead over the second competitor [1][2] Industry Analysis - The spicy strip market is projected to reach a size of approximately 61.5 billion yuan in 2024, with the company holding a dominant market share [1][2] - The konjac snack food segment is still in a rapid penetration phase, with the company leading the market share significantly, and its revenue scale being several times that of the second competitor [1][2] - The company’s vegetable product revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 50.6 billion, 65.7 billion, and 78.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, reflecting growth rates of 50.0%, 30.0%, and 20.0% respectively [2] - The company is optimizing its product structure by phasing out low-margin SKUs in the seasoning noodle category, which is expected to lead to a short-term revenue decline but long-term structural improvement [2] - The industry is currently experiencing rapid growth but is expected to enter a consolidation phase due to tight upstream raw material supply and limited midstream capacity [4]