Founder Securities(SH:601901) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-26 01:45Core Viewpoint - The automotive sector is expected to present structural investment opportunities in 2026 despite a reduction in subsidies, with traditional vehicle and parts exports likely to support sales and profits, alongside emerging technologies like autonomous driving and AI computing [1] Passenger Vehicles - Passenger vehicle wholesale sales are projected to reach 29.38 million units in 2026, a slight decline of 0.7% year-on-year. Export sales are expected to be 6.34 million units, up 13% from 2025, while retail sales are forecasted at 23.05 million units, down 4% [1] - The export market is anticipated to be a key driver for core growth in the automotive sector, with leading companies expected to transition to profit generation from exports in 2026 [1] - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a bottoming out of domestic demand, creating a golden window for export strategies, with a focus on identifying "dark horses" domestically and "white horses" in exports [1] Commercial Vehicles - The commercial vehicle market is expected to recover significantly in 2025, with heavy truck sales projected to exceed 1.1 million units, driven mainly by domestic policy support [2] - In 2026, heavy truck sales are expected to remain stable at over 1.12 million units, with domestic sales projected at 750,000 units (down 4%) and exports expected to reach 375,000 units (up 9%) [2] - Bus sales are forecasted to be 580,000 units in 2026, with a growth of 8%, driven by the acceleration of new energy vehicle exports [2] Auto Parts - The focus for auto parts is on export opportunities, intelligent driving, and transformation trends, with three main lines of attention: traditional parts export leaders, core emerging industry trends, and transformation parts [3] - Domestic auto parts companies are expected to face pressure on profitability due to slowing domestic demand, but local production capacity for overseas markets is anticipated to strengthen [3] - The emergence of L3 autonomous driving and the commercialization of L4 are expected to create structural opportunities in the market [3] Robotics - The robotics sector is transitioning from thematic speculation to performance realization, with key policies being implemented to support development [4] - 2026 is seen as a critical year for humanoid robots, with the Optimus Gen3 expected to launch in Q1 and mass production anticipated in H2, potentially leading to significant growth in the automotive segment [4] - China's supply chain advantages in responsiveness, cost, and completeness are expected to position it as a core support for both domestic and global supply chains [4] Related Companies - Key companies to watch include BYD, SAIC Motor, Seres, Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck, Weichai Power, Leap Motor, Xpeng Motors, Geely, Great Wall Motors, Fuyao Glass, Songyuan Safety, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Top Group, Yinlun Machinery, and Jieneng Electronics [5]