人民币破7！大化工谁最受益？

Group 1 - The offshore RMB has appreciated against the USD, breaking the 7.0 mark for the first time since September 2024, with a cumulative increase of 4.6% this year [1] - The onshore RMB has also approached the 7.0 mark, with a year-to-date appreciation of 4% [1] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to accelerate the conversion of corporate earnings held overseas, further driving appreciation and hot money inflow [1] Group 2 - The chemical industry, particularly oil-head refining enterprises, will benefit significantly from the RMB appreciation due to their high reliance on imported raw materials [3] - Oil-head refining is the mainstream route in the chemical industry, with crude oil accounting for 50%-90% of total costs, making it highly sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations [4] - For example, Rongsheng Petrochemical, a leading private refining enterprise, could save 1 billion RMB in costs for every 3% appreciation of the RMB, potentially increasing annual profits by 4 billion RMB [4] Group 3 - Coal-head route enterprises like Baofeng Energy have lower sensitivity to exchange rate changes due to their high self-sufficiency in raw materials, primarily using domestic coal [5] - Baofeng Energy's cost structure is less affected by RMB appreciation, as it relies mainly on domestic coal, making the impact on profits negligible [5] Group 4 - Gas-head route enterprises, such as Satellite Chemical, have moderate sensitivity to exchange rate changes, depending on their import ratios of ethane and propane [6] - Satellite Chemical's core project relies on imported ethane, and a 3% appreciation of the RMB could save several million to over 100 million RMB in raw material costs [6] Group 5 - The current domestic chemical raw material demand is steadily recovering, with downstream products like PX and PTA experiencing price increases, creating a dual benefit of cost reduction and product premium for refining leaders [7] - The combination of an A-share bull market and RMB appreciation is attracting foreign investment into core assets, with leading companies like Rongsheng Petrochemical seeing significant stock price increases [7]