山重水复疑无路，柳暗花明又一村——贵州省地方债务化解观察与展望

Core Insights - Guizhou Province is facing significant local debt issues, with a total local government debt balance projected to reach 17,537.09 billion yuan by the end of 2024, and urban investment enterprise debt around 9,000 billion yuan, indicating a heavy debt burden compared to national averages [1][7][10] - The province has implemented a multi-faceted debt resolution strategy, supported by central government policies, which has led to a gradual reduction in urban investment enterprise debt and improved financing structures [2][20][43] Debt Characteristics - The local debt scale in Guizhou has been continuously increasing, with local government debt expected to reach 17,537.09 billion yuan and urban investment enterprise debt around 9,000 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [7][10] - There is a significant regional disparity in debt distribution, with urban investment enterprise debt concentrated in Guiyang and Zunyi, accounting for approximately 60% of the province's total [10][16] - Some cities are experiencing liquidity pressure, with cash assets insufficient to cover short-term debts, particularly in Zunyi and Guiyang [14][16] Debt Resolution Measures - Guizhou has limited self-resources for debt resolution but has received substantial support from central policies, forming a multi-dimensional debt resolution system [2][20] - Financial support includes loan extensions, interest rate reductions, and bond financing, with provincial banks providing over 1 trillion yuan in credit to issuing enterprises [2][30] - The province has issued special refinancing bonds and special new bonds, with cumulative issuance amounts ranking among the top in key provinces since 2024 [40][41] Debt Resolution Outcomes - The debt scale of issuing urban investment enterprises has been significantly reduced since the end of 2022, with a net repayment scale exceeding 350 billion yuan annually for 2023-2024 [2][44] - The concentration of repayment pressure has notably decreased, with the distribution of maturing bonds becoming more balanced [48] - Credit spreads for urban investment bonds have narrowed significantly, although they remain at a high level compared to other key provinces [50][53] Future Outlook - In the short term, liquidity risks are manageable under the current debt resolution policies, but repayment pressures for urban investment enterprises persist [3][20] - Long-term growth is expected in sectors such as liquor, mineral processing, digital economy, and new energy, which may help gradually resolve debt issues through economic development [3][20]