Nvidia(US:NVDA) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-26 11:22Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's decision to impose tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports, effective June 2027, reflects a strategic maneuver in the semiconductor industry, allowing for an 18-month buffer period for negotiations and adjustments [1][20]. Group 1: U.S. Semiconductor Strategy - The U.S. is targeting mature process chips (28nm and above), which are essential for various industrial applications, from household appliances to automotive technologies [5]. - The U.S. faces a dilemma as it has also invested hundreds of billions in domestic semiconductor production, while predicting a surplus of over 30% in global mature process capacity by 2030 [7]. - Immediate tariffs could further undermine market confidence, risking the viability of new U.S. semiconductor facilities [8]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dependencies - The U.S. heavily relies on China for critical raw materials like gallium and germanium, which are essential for semiconductor manufacturing [10]. - Restrictions on rare earth exports from China have already impacted U.S. defense contractors, highlighting the interdependence of the two nations in the semiconductor supply chain [12]. Group 3: Bilateral Negotiation Dynamics - The delay in imposing tariffs serves as a bargaining chip for the U.S. to negotiate reductions in Chinese semiconductor subsidies and relaxations in rare earth export controls [20]. - Simultaneously, China aims to leverage this situation to seek eased restrictions on advanced semiconductor exports to the U.S. and halt unwarranted sanctions against its tech firms [20]. Group 4: Potential Market Impact - A complete breakdown in negotiations could lead to a significant increase in global chip prices, estimated to rise by 35% to 65%, resulting in substantial additional costs for U.S. consumers [22].