Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the "four high" advantages of the company, which include high profitability, high dividends, high capacity growth, and high equity incentives, showcasing its investment value [1][2][3] High Profitability - From 2018 to 2024, the company's ROE is expected to consistently outperform major thermal coal enterprises, primarily due to a high sales net profit margin, with a central level of 36.97% compared to 5%-20% for peers [1] - The company's strong profitability per ton of coal supports this high sales net profit margin, achieving higher selling prices due to the quality of coal from the Dafenpu mine and efficient sales strategies, with gross profit per ton expected to remain between 400-600 RMB/ton from 2021 to 2024, exceeding peers by 80-110 RMB/ton [1] High Dividends - The company benefits from low leverage and strong cash conversion ability, with the dividend payout ratio expected to rise to 56.57% from 2022 to 2024 [2] - As of the mid-2025 report, the company announced a total of 657.68 million RMB in interim and special dividends, translating to a dividend yield of 6.56% based on the market value as of December 23 [2] - The company has consistently implemented "interim + final" dual dividends for eight consecutive years from 2017 to 2024, and will distribute special dividends for three consecutive years starting in 2023 [2] High Capacity Growth - The company currently has a production capacity of 6.5 million tons of thermal coal and is building an additional 2.1 million tons of coking coal capacity, expected to reach production in 2026 and 2027 [2] - The company is gradually acquiring a 51% stake in the MC Mining project in South Africa, which includes both thermal and coking coal, with the Makhado project expected to commence joint commissioning in January 2026, targeting an annual raw coal extraction rate of 3.2-4 million tons [2] High Equity Incentives - As of mid-2025, the company has granted 263.50 million shares to employees under the 2023 share reward plan, representing 3.13% of the shares issued on the grant date, which helps align the interests of management and shareholders, thereby reducing agency costs [3] Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5,406.45 million RMB, 6,118.27 million RMB, and 6,815.50 million RMB for 2025-2027, with net profits of 1,288.04 million RMB, 1,879.75 million RMB, and 2,143.48 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year change of -38.95%, +45.94%, and +14.03% respectively [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.15 RMB, 0.22 RMB, and 0.25 RMB, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 7.83, 5.36, and 4.70 times [3] - Given the strong profitability of the Dafenpu mine, high dividend payout, effective equity incentives, and the potential for growth from new projects, the company is deemed to have investment value, with a "buy" rating recommended [3]
力量发展(1277.HK)公司深度报告：动力煤价值标杆 深耕本土 拓疆全球