苹果(AAPL.US)股价创新高，为何市场担忧其“后劲不足”？

Core Viewpoint - Apple (AAPL.US) experienced a strong rebound of 35% in the second half of the year after an 18% decline, achieving over 11% net growth for the year, outperforming the S&P 500 and many large tech stocks, driven by steady sales of iPhones and Macs, as well as a favorable product mix that expanded profit margins [1][11] Group 1: Challenges - Challenge 1: Preempted iPhone Upgrade Demand - Apple set a record for iPhone sales in the September quarter, driven by strong demand for the iPhone 16/17 series, but concerns arise for FY2026 as the demand outlook appears bleak due to preempted upgrades and potential supply constraints for the upcoming foldable iPhone 18 [2][11] - Challenge 2: Increasing Cost Pressures - In FY2025, Apple achieved profit growth outpacing revenue growth, but future profit margin expansion is limited due to various cost pressures, including tariffs and rising material costs, particularly for components like LPDDR5X memory, which have more than doubled in price over the past year [3][5][11] - Challenge 3: Potential Impact of Market "Rotation" - A shift in market style, favoring underperforming sectors like pharmaceuticals and utilities, poses a threat to Apple's high valuation, as this "rotation" may suppress the upward potential of the tech sector and reduce market preference for traditional cash cow assets like Apple [9][10][11] Group 2: Financial Insights - Revenue and Tariff Headwinds - Projected tariff headwinds for FY2025 are $800 million in Q3, $1.1 billion in Q4, and $1.4 billion in Q1 FY2026, with revenue expected to grow by 10% in Q3, 8% in Q4, and 11% in Q1 FY2026 [4] Group 3: Summary - The recent historical high in Apple's stock price reflects market confidence in its short-term execution and profit stability, but the potential for substantial valuation increases from current levels is limited due to preempted iPhone demand and rising costs, alongside a cautious market outlook for high-valuation tech stocks [11]