Lilly(US:LLY) 3 6 Ke·2025-12-27 00:01Core Viewpoint - The price of Tirzepatide, a new GLP-1 drug, is expected to significantly decrease after the 2025 National Medical Insurance Directory negotiations, which will impact the market dynamics for diabetes and weight loss medications in China [1][3]. Pricing and Market Impact - The new monthly prices for Tirzepatide (effective January 1, 2026) are reported as follows: 324.1 CNY for 2.5mg, 551 CNY for 5mg, 751.6 CNY for 7.5mg, and 936.7 CNY for 10mg, indicating a substantial reduction compared to previous prices [2][4]. - The anticipated price drop could reach up to 70% compared to the initial pricing of approximately 1700-1800 CNY for the 2.5mg dosage at launch [6][7]. - The global sales of Tirzepatide reached 24.837 billion USD in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 125% year-on-year increase, establishing it as the "global drug king" [3][8]. Competitive Landscape - The entry of Tirzepatide into the Chinese market at lower prices is expected to reshape the competitive landscape among GLP-1 drugs, with 10 approved products currently and more in the pipeline [3][8]. - The price adjustments of Tirzepatide are likely to influence the pricing strategies of other GLP-1 drugs, including those for weight loss indications, as they are fundamentally similar [6][7]. - The expiration of core patents for competitors like Semaglutide in March 2026 may lead to an influx of generic alternatives, intensifying competition [8][9]. Industry Trends and Strategies - Companies are focusing on enhancing their competitive barriers and exploring new drug development and indication expansions to thrive in a rapidly changing market [11][12]. - The market potential for GLP-1 drugs in China remains significant, with a current penetration rate of only 1%, compared to 10% in the U.S., indicating room for growth [15].