大麦娱乐(1060.HK):现实娱乐头部平台 演出票务与IP衍生双轮驱动

Group 1 - The live performance market is experiencing a "volume and price increase" with a projected box office for large concerts exceeding 26 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 78.1% [1] - The demand side is driven by a resonance of self-indulgence and social needs, with an increase in the proportion of repeat attendees, while the supply side sees continuous expansion in lower-tier cities and diversification of categories [1] - Damai maintains a leading position in the ticketing market due to its strong first-mover advantage, deep industry integration over nearly 20 years, and cultivation of consumer habits [1] Group 2 - Alibaba's IP licensing platform, Aliyu, is the largest in China and the sixth globally, with a projected GMV of 4.1 billion USD in 2024, leveraging an "IP2B2C" model to create competitive barriers [2] - The film industry is still in a recovery phase, with a total box office of 29.23 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 22.91% [2] - The company is positioned in high-growth sectors of live performances and IP derivatives, with stable contributions from ticketing business and potential performance elasticity from Aliyu, expecting adjusted net profits of 1.06 billion, 1.35 billion, and 1.58 billion yuan for FY26-28 [2]