Seek .(US:SKLTY) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-27 23:17Core Insights - The real estate market's future value will largely depend on the city of purchase and the quality of property amenities, rather than overall market trends [1][2][4] Group 1: Predictions for Core Cities - Properties in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and other key urban areas are expected to maintain value, with a projected increase to approximately 1.15 to 1.25 million by 2030 from a current value of 1 million [1][2] - The anticipated growth is modest, reflecting a shift in market dynamics where properties are expected to outpace inflation but not achieve previous high returns [1] Group 2: Risks in Lower-Tier Cities - Properties in third and fourth-tier cities, or suburban areas of major cities, are likely to depreciate, with values potentially dropping to 0.75 to 0.85 million by 2030 [2] - These areas face significant inventory pressure and lack the necessary industrial support to attract population inflow, leading to a downward trend in property values [2][5] Group 3: Changes in Educational Property Value - The value of properties linked to educational districts is expected to weaken as educational resources become more balanced, particularly affecting "pseudo school district properties" in lower-tier cities [4] Group 4: Underlying Factors for Market Divergence - The slowdown in urbanization and concentrated population movement towards core cities will impact property values in less populated areas [5] - Policy direction is clear, with a dual-track system aimed at providing housing support, which will divert demand away from third and fourth-tier cities [5] - Changing consumer preferences emphasize comfort and convenience, leading to the market's rejection of properties lacking essential amenities [6] Group 5: Recommendations - For first-time homebuyers, it is advisable to consider small units in core cities with complete amenities for better long-term stability [8] - Investment in third and fourth-tier cities is discouraged, as properties in core cities are now viewed primarily as value-preserving assets rather than opportunities for significant wealth accumulation [8]