KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-28 17:26Core Viewpoint - The wholesale reference price of Moutai liquor has seen a significant decline, with the 2025 Feitian Moutai dropping to 1560 RMB per bottle, marking a continuous decrease over four days [1][3]. Price Trends - As of December 28, 2025, the wholesale reference price for original boxes of Feitian Moutai is 1560 RMB, down 10 RMB from the previous day, while the price for loose bottles is 1550 RMB, also down 10 RMB [1][2]. - The prices for Feitian Moutai have been on a downward trend since June 2025, with the wholesale price first falling below 2000 RMB per bottle on June 11, and subsequently dropping below 1500 RMB by mid-December [3][6]. Market Dynamics - The market experienced a brief rebound after news of a potential production control policy from Guizhou Moutai, with prices rising to 1600 RMB for original boxes and 1580 RMB for loose bottles on December 24 [3]. - The price of the 2025 Feitian Moutai has fluctuated significantly throughout the year, with a notable drop from a high of 3800 RMB to a low of 1610 RMB, representing a decline of 52.11% [6][8]. Industry Insights - Analysts suggest that the white liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with the adjustment cycle not yet complete. The transition from a "channel-driven" to a "consumer-driven" model is seen as a necessary step for long-term health [8][9]. - The current price adjustments are viewed as essential for eliminating excess inventory and outdated production capacity, with stabilization expected around the second quarter of 2026 [9].