POP MART(HK:09992) 3 6 Ke·2025-12-28 23:15Core Insights - The value of IP (Intellectual Property) is not solely dependent on secondary market prices, as demonstrated by LABUBU's success, which relies on a solid fan base rather than speculative trading [1][7][22] - The period from 2018 to 2023 marked the initial growth phase for original潮玩 (trendy toys), with 2024 expected to be a turning point for market dynamics and IP commercialization [2][14] - The formula for IP commercialization is defined as IP x Category x Amplifier, emphasizing the importance of each component in driving growth and sustainability [9][19][23] Industry Trends - The潮玩 market has seen a shift from speculative trading to a focus on emotional value and everyday usage, with LABUBU's revenue projected to grow from 260 million in 2022 to 3 billion in 2024 [2][7] - The market is experiencing a re-evaluation of IP values, as evidenced by the volatility in stock prices for companies like泡泡玛特 (Pop Mart), which reflects concerns over the sustainability of popular IPs [2][22] - The introduction of new categories, such as搪胶毛绒 (rubber plush), is expected to drive further growth and diversification in the潮玩 sector [14][20] Business Strategies - Successful潮玩 companies must focus on serving IP rather than merely facilitating transactions, as demonstrated by the development of Lockerr, which enhances community engagement and operational efficiency for IP creators [8][9] - The choice of product category is crucial; categories that resonate with consumers, such as毛绒挂件 (plush hangers), can significantly enhance market appeal and sales potential [16][17] - Companies that innovate within specific categories and leverage their unique IP assets are more likely to achieve sustainable growth and market leadership [21][22] Market Dynamics - The潮玩 industry is characterized by a stark divide between leading brands and smaller players, with泡泡玛特 exemplifying high commercial value due to its control over the entire supply chain [22] - The next wave of successful潮玩 IPs is anticipated to emerge from companies that can effectively navigate market challenges and capitalize on category innovations [20][23] - The interplay between IP, category, and amplification strategies will determine the long-term viability and success of潮玩 brands in a competitive landscape [19][23]