Juno markets 外匯：高盛预测2026年黄金将成最优选择

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' commodity strategy team predicts that gold will be the preferred investment in the entire commodity sector by 2026 [1] Group 1: Commodity Market Dynamics - If private investors follow the asset diversification trend of global central banks and include gold in their portfolios, gold prices could potentially exceed the benchmark forecast of $4,900 per ounce, leading to significant upward momentum [3] - The report highlights that the competition in artificial intelligence and geopolitical power struggles, along with structural changes in global energy supply, are the core driving forces behind commodity market trends [3] - In 2025, the commodity index achieved strong total returns, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index returning 15%, driven by the performance of industrial products, particularly precious metals, benefiting from the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle [3] Group 2: Predictions for Gold - Goldman Sachs' macroeconomic framework for 2026 includes two key assumptions: stable global GDP growth and a potential 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which will support the commodity market and drive strong returns [3] - Among all commodities covered, gold is the most bullish asset, supported by the ongoing gold purchasing behavior of global central banks, with an expected average monthly demand of 70 tons in 2026 [3] - Central bank purchases are projected to contribute approximately 14 percentage points to gold price increases before December 2026 [3] Group 3: Private Investor Impact - If the trend of asset diversification from central banks extends to private investors, it could create additional upward pressure on gold prices, with competition in physical gold between private investors and central banks being a significant driver of the long-term bull market [4] - Currently, gold ETFs account for only 0.17% of private financial portfolios in the U.S., which is 6 basis points lower than the peak level in 2012, indicating significant room for growth [4] - Goldman Sachs estimates that a 1 basis point increase in gold's share of U.S. financial portfolios could lead to a 1.4% increase in gold prices [4] Group 4: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs provides a timeline for gold prices, predicting a potential dip to $4,200 per ounce in Q1 2026, followed by a gradual recovery to $4,400 in Q2 [4] - In Q3, gold prices are expected to break historical records, reaching around $4,630 per ounce, and by the end of Q4, prices could further rise to $4,900 [4]