茅台2026年取消分销模式解决价格倒挂

Core Viewpoint - Moutai's announcement to cancel the distribution model by 2026 aims to address dealer losses and price inversion issues, alongside product structure adjustments and market stabilization measures [1] Group 1: Termination of Distribution Model - The provincial distribution mechanism will be abolished, with dealers no longer able to purchase at a 10% discount from the suggested retail price starting in 2026. The new policy will implement direct control of terminal supply by the distillery, promoting a market-oriented operation based on demand [2] - The direct cause for this change is the long-term market price of non-standard products (e.g., zodiac liquor, rare Moutai) being lower than the suggested retail price, leading to dealer losses, with some agents facing actual costs as high as 1,400 yuan per bottle [2] Group 2: Product Structure Adjustment - High-value-added products will be reduced, with the complete cessation of rare Moutai supply and a 30%-50% reduction in zodiac Moutai quotas. The supply of non-standard products like aged Moutai (15 years) and 1-liter flying Moutai will also be cut by 30% [3] - The focus will shift to core products, establishing a "pyramid" product system consisting of "ordinary Moutai (1,500 yuan+), premium Moutai (2,000 yuan+), and Moutai 1935 (600 yuan+)" to enhance the market share of ordinary flying Moutai [3] Group 3: Pricing Mechanism and Market Stabilization Measures - Pricing will be determined by market conditions, eliminating fixed guidance prices and adjusting supply based on demand dynamics to ensure a balance between volume and price [4] - Measures will be taken to control speculation, strengthening direct sales channels (e.g., i Moutai App) and requiring specialty stores to be the preferred purchasing point for consumers, thereby reducing the space for scalpers [4] Group 4: Market Controversies and Potential Risks - Supporters argue that the cancellation of distribution and reduction in supply can restore the channel ecosystem and address losses caused by bundling of non-standard products, with the wholesale price of 1,580 yuan per bottle approaching the comprehensive cost line for dealers [5] - Critics express concerns about high inventory pressure, with reports suggesting social inventory reaching 500 million bottles (three times the annual production), and a real opening rate of less than 40%. They believe the policy may only delay issues rather than resolve weak demand [6] - There are also worries about revenue risks, as the reduction of non-standard products could lead to an annual revenue decline of 15 billion to 20 billion yuan [6] Group 5: Restructuring Channel Relationships - The relationship between manufacturers and dealers will be adjusted, with a shift in terminology from "family" to "friends," establishing a "clean and clear" cooperation principle that emphasizes integrity and compliance in operations, eliminating the need for gifts or favors [7] - The assessment of dealers will transition from reliance on quotas to evaluating their terminal service capabilities (e.g., group purchases, direct supply to enterprises), enhancing consumer engagement [8] Group 6: Short-term Market Reaction - Following the policy announcement, the wholesale price of flying Moutai surged by 90 yuan in a single day (e.g., from 1,490 yuan to 1,580 yuan), although this fluctuation is dependent on policy expectations rather than genuine demand. The long-term effects will need to be observed during the 2026 Spring Festival sales and inventory clearance [10]