Coinbase(US:COIN) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-29 07:23Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is entering a new phase where the concentration of active trading is more important than grand narratives, with 2026 being a significant test for scalability under disciplined market conditions [1][2] - The traditional cycle model of retail speculation and token issuance is becoming less reliable as institutional participation and market infrastructure play a larger role in pricing behavior and price discovery [1][2] Market Dynamics - The cryptocurrency market in 2026 is expected to be driven by core scenarios and the robustness of trading infrastructure rather than grand narratives, resembling more mature financial markets [2] - The focus on ETF assets by Wall Street institutions indicates a higher trading participation from professionals, leading to market pricing being driven by positions, risk control, and liquidity rather than retail sentiment [2] Derivatives and Market Structure - Derivatives remain a core source of trading volume in the cryptocurrency market, with price formation now dominated by positions, funding rates, and liquidity rather than solely by retail-driven momentum [3] - Following a significant deleveraging event at the end of 2025, leverage has decreased, but the perpetual futures market remains resilient, indicating a new normal of tighter margins and stronger risk controls [3] Prediction Markets - Prediction markets are evolving from experimental products to more durable financial infrastructure, with increasing nominal trading volumes and deeper liquidity [4] - The fragmentation among prediction platforms is driving demand for aggregation and higher overall efficiency, attracting more mature participants such as top asset management firms and hedge funds [4][5] Stablecoins and Real-World Applications - Stablecoins and cross-border payments are identified as a lasting pillar of growth in the cryptocurrency market, with increasing transaction volumes driven by settlement, cross-border transfers, and liquidity management [7][8] - The use of stablecoins is rapidly expanding, particularly in the U.S. market, with some analysts predicting their market size could grow to $2 trillion, highlighting their potential as a blueprint for the global payment system [8]