牛市信仰拉满！华尔街一致押注美股连涨四年 AI热潮、货币宽松与经济韧性将成最大助力

Core Viewpoint - A consensus among major banks and boutique investment firms indicates that the U.S. stock market is expected to rise for the fourth consecutive year by 2026, marking the longest streak in nearly two decades [1]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 index has surged approximately 90% since its low in October 2022, despite concerns over the potential decline of the AI boom, economic conditions, and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [1]. - Analysts surveyed predict a median year-end target for the S&P 500 index in 2026, suggesting an additional upside of about 9% for the coming year, with no analysts forecasting a decline [1]. - Market strategist Ed Yardeni expresses concern over the prevailing optimism, noting that the long duration of positive trends has led to a collective bullish sentiment that may be worrisome [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The optimism in Wall Street is bolstered by the resilience of the U.S. economy, which continues to show strength despite challenges posed by trade policies and the impact of AI investments on tech stock valuations [5]. - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of nearly 20% from mid-February to early April, prompting strategists to revise their forecasts downward before adjusting them upward again due to a rapid market rebound [4]. - The economic growth in the third quarter was the fastest in two years, driven by strong consumer and business spending, alongside more stable trade policies [13]. Group 3: Analyst Predictions - Christopher Harvey, a senior strategist, maintains a year-end target of 7,450 points for the S&P 500 index in 2026, indicating an 8% increase, while cautioning against macro risks that may disrupt the market [11]. - Morgan Stanley has shifted to a bullish stance, predicting the S&P 500 index will rise to 7,500 points, supported by robust corporate earnings and declining interest rates [12]. - Savita Subramanian from Bank of America anticipates the S&P 500 index will reach 7,100 points in 2026, but warns that high valuations may limit further gains [12].