12.8万亿对不上账！老百姓扛不住压力提前还贷，楼市救市真要来了

Core Viewpoint - Despite a significant increase in new home sales amounting to approximately 40 trillion yuan from 2022 to 2025, the personal mortgage balance in banks has not only failed to rise but has actually decreased, leading to a discrepancy of about 12.8 trillion yuan in expected mortgage growth [3][5][6]. Group 1: Mortgage Trends - The personal mortgage balance dropped from 38.32 trillion yuan at the end of 2021 to 37.74 trillion yuan by the second quarter of 2025 [4][5]. - Theoretically, based on the new home sales, banks should have seen an increase of around 28 trillion yuan in mortgages, but this did not materialize [5]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - A large-scale deleveraging movement has occurred, with individuals prioritizing paying off their mortgages over other investments or consumption [6][7]. - Many consumers are finding that early repayment of mortgages has become the most stable and profitable financial strategy, especially as returns on other investment vehicles have diminished [13][15]. Group 3: Banking Sector Impact - The influx of funds for mortgage repayment has led to a contraction in banks' expected asset sizes and altered their balance sheet structures [9]. - Banks are facing significant operational pressures due to the high volume of early repayments, which has prompted them to implement measures such as closing online repayment channels and increasing penalties for early repayment [22][24]. Group 4: Policy Responses - In response to the challenges faced by banks and the housing market, various local governments have introduced policies aimed at stabilizing the financial system and supporting the housing market [30][32]. - These measures include increasing loan limits and allowing the use of public funds for various housing-related expenses, indicating a shift in focus from merely facilitating home purchases to ensuring the stability of financial institutions [30][32].