SMIC(SH:688981) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-30 01:29Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a price increase cycle across various segments, driven by AI demand and domestic substitution trends, indicating a structural market shift [2][20][23]. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a nine-day winning streak, facing resistance around the 4000-point mark [1]. - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) saw a slight decline of 0.29%, but has attracted over 55 million yuan in capital inflows over the past three trading days [1]. Group 2: Price Increases in Semiconductor Sector - In December, NAND flash wafer prices rose by over 10% month-on-month, while solid-state drive (SSD) prices increased by 15%-20% [2][5]. - Major international storage suppliers have raised HBM3E prices by nearly 20% for 2026 [2]. - Semiconductor manufacturers, including SMIC, have issued price increase notices to downstream clients, particularly for the 8-inch BCD process platform, with increases around 10% [6]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Projections - According to SEMI, global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales are projected to reach $133 billion in 2025, marking a 13.7% year-on-year increase, with continued growth expected into 2026 and 2027 [11]. - The semiconductor industry is benefiting from a recovery trend, with the China Securities Index reporting a 32.12% year-on-year revenue growth for the semiconductor sector in Q3 [13]. Group 4: Investment Focus - Current semiconductor investments are concentrated on high-end logic chips and memory (HBM) that directly benefit from the surge in computing power demand, as well as opportunities in domestic equipment manufacturing [23]. - The domestic semiconductor equipment industry is expected to see significant growth driven by both technology and inventory cycles, alongside increasing domestic substitution demand [2][20]. Group 5: ETF and Index Performance - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) tracks the China Securities Semiconductor Index, which has a nearly 60% focus on equipment, with over 90% of its composition in the semiconductor supply chain's upstream sectors [3]. - The index has shown a remarkable performance, with a year-to-date increase of over 62% as of December 29, outperforming other major semiconductor indices [3].