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Core Viewpoint - A consensus among major banks and investment institutions suggests that the U.S. stock market will achieve its fourth consecutive year of gains by 2026, marking the longest streak in nearly two decades [2]. Group 1: Market Performance and Predictions - Since hitting a low in October 2022, the S&P 500 index has risen approximately 90%, despite ongoing concerns about potential risks such as an AI bubble, economic trends, and political instability under President Trump [2]. - Analysts predict an average year-end target for the S&P 500 in 2026 that implies a further increase of 9%, with no forecasters expecting a decline [2]. - Ed Yardeni, a senior market strategist, forecasts the S&P 500 to reach 7,700 points next year, an 11% increase from recent closing prices, but expresses concern over the prevailing optimism [5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Volatility - The optimistic sentiment among Wall Street analysts has been reinforced following a tumultuous 2025, where the S&P 500 index fell nearly 20% before experiencing a rapid rebound [5]. - Analysts have noted that the market's resilience is surprising, especially given the challenges posed by AI sector dynamics and trade wars initiated by Trump [8]. - Morgan Stanley's analysts shifted from a bearish to a bullish outlook, now predicting the S&P 500 to rise to 7,500 points, supported by economic growth, cooling inflation, and the belief that AI stock gains reflect a genuine economic transformation [9]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Risks - The U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience, with significant investments in AI and technology driving stock prices, contributing to nearly half of the S&P 500's gains this year [8]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of not underestimating the U.S. stock market's resilience, supported by strong corporate earnings growth and a stable macroeconomic environment [13]. - Some analysts, like Savita Subramanian from Bank of America, caution against over-optimism, suggesting that the S&P 500 could reach 7,100 points in 2026, with potential declines of 20% in a recession scenario [12].