CATL(SZ:300750) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-30 03:07Core Viewpoint - Citi's report estimates that the planned production capacity of the five major battery manufacturers in mainland China may decline by 7% in January 2026, with CATL potentially experiencing a 10% drop, which is greater than the market's previous expectations of a low single-digit decrease [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The battery supply chain is viewed defensively due to seasonal factors and weak demand for electric vehicles, leading to uncertainty in planned production capacity [1] - The weak production outlook in January may be attributed to leading battery companies negotiating with upstream suppliers rather than a genuine decline in demand [1] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - CATL is the industry's preferred choice, with target prices set at HKD 621 for H-shares and RMB 571 for A-shares [1] - Some major cathode material manufacturers have announced plans for maintenance shutdowns in January due to rising raw material prices and thin processing fee income, which is believed to be related to the sharp increase in lithium carbonate futures prices [1]