TSMC(US:TSM) Guan Cha Zhe Wang·2025-12-30 03:23Core Viewpoint - The ongoing US-China technology war has reached a critical stage, with China making significant advancements in various technology sectors, raising questions about Taiwan's position and future opportunities in this context [1][17]. Group 1: China's Technological Advancements - According to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute's report, China has established a leading position in over 60 out of 70 key technology areas, significantly surpassing the US [5]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes six key areas for technological breakthroughs, including integrated circuits and advanced materials, while also identifying new economic growth points such as quantum technology and hydrogen energy [2][3]. - China's approach to technology development is characterized by a broad exploration of all available technologies rather than a selective focus, allowing for a diverse range of innovations [10][16]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment - The success of Chinese tech companies like Cambricon and Moore Threads is attributed to market-driven investments rather than government funding, highlighting the importance of private capital in fostering innovation [7][21]. - The shift from government-selected winners to market-selected winners has led to a more dynamic and competitive tech landscape in China, enhancing the conversion of research into commercial applications [8][9]. Group 3: Implications for Taiwan - Taiwan's reliance on TSMC raises concerns about its long-term economic sustainability, as the island lacks other significant industries to support its economy if TSMC were to relocate [24][25]. - The historical investment in the semiconductor industry has created a strong foundation, but there is a pressing need for Taiwan to diversify its economic base beyond TSMC to avoid becoming overly dependent [22][26]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing technological competition suggests that the US's strategy of containment may be ineffective, as China's advancements continue to challenge the status quo [17][20]. - The potential for collaboration between the US and China is acknowledged, but the technology war is expected to persist, influencing global market dynamics and investment strategies [3][18].