Zheshang Securities(SH:601878) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-30 08:25Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is expected to see accelerated profit recovery by 2026, with strong performance in the first three quarters of 2025 and a positive outlook for the major airlines' annual profitability [1] Group 1: Key Assumptions - Economic environment and consumer spending are expected to improve marginally, leading to increased travel demand and better supply-demand dynamics, which will support airline load factors and ticket prices [1] - The recovery of international routes is anticipated to boost fleet utilization rates, thereby reducing fixed costs for airlines [1] - A decline in oil prices and stable RMB exchange rates are critical assumptions for this positive outlook [1] Group 2: Major Weaknesses - Consumer recovery and travel demand may fall short of expectations, negatively impacting load factors and ticket prices, which would affect airline revenues [2] - Slower-than-expected recovery of international routes could hinder fleet utilization, impacting overall performance [2] - Significant increases in oil prices or a sharp depreciation of the RMB could erode airline profits [2] Group 3: Tracking Methods - Close monitoring of oil prices is essential, as they significantly impact operational costs for airlines [3] - The potential depreciation of the RMB could suppress reported profits, especially if there are changes in U.S. Federal Reserve policies or other international economic factors [3] - The impact of exchange rate fluctuations on profits is noted, with a focus on how these changes could affect stock prices [3]