年度盘点|高端化与政策红利加持，2025奶粉市场逆势回暖

Core Insights - The Chinese infant formula market in 2025 is characterized by a dual landscape of challenges and opportunities, with declining birth rates and intense competition on one side, and a recovery in performance for several leading dairy companies on the other [1] - The recovery in the infant formula sector is attributed to strategic adjustments by companies, product innovation, and the implementation of supportive national policies [1] Company Performance - Major dairy companies like Yili, Ausnutria, and Beingmate have reported revenue and profit growth in the infant formula segment, reversing previous trends of slowing growth [2][4] - Yili's infant formula and dairy product revenue increased by 14.26% year-on-year, achieving a market share of 18.1%, while Ausnutria's revenue grew by 5.6% with a net profit increase of 24.1% [2][4] - The performance of foreign brands such as Danone and a2 Milk also showed positive growth, although some leading companies faced pressure, indicating structural differentiation within the industry [6] Market Trends - The retail market for infant formula is expected to grow at around 5% in 2025, driven by a rebound in birth rates and supportive policies [6] - The proportion of consumers purchasing premium infant formula (over 300 yuan) increased from 21% to 26%, reflecting a trend towards higher quality products among younger parents [6] Strategic Shifts - The industry is shifting from a focus on market share expansion to value creation, with companies investing in high-end and functionally differentiated products [10] - Companies are enhancing their supply chains and digital efficiencies to improve profitability, with examples like Ausnutria's EBITDA growth of 29.7% [13] Policy Impact - New national policies, including a cash subsidy for families with infants and free preschool education, are expected to stimulate demand in the infant formula market [15][18] - The implementation of these policies is anticipated to lower childcare costs and boost consumer confidence, leading to increased sales for dairy companies [15][18] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to transition from cyclical recovery to structural growth, with companies needing to diversify their growth strategies [19][21] - Product innovation is crucial, with a focus on specialized nutrition for various age groups and health needs, as well as digital transformation to enhance consumer engagement [20][21] - The consolidation of the industry may accelerate, with larger companies likely to acquire smaller firms to expand their market share [20][21]