Tesla(US:TSLA) 3 6 Ke·2025-12-30 09:58Core Viewpoint - The contract value between Tesla and its battery materials supplier L&F has plummeted by 99.99%, indicating significant challenges in the production and supply of the 4680 battery, which is crucial for Tesla's cost reduction and production capacity goals [1][6][11]. Group 1: Contract Details - L&F, a South Korean battery materials supplier, signed a contract with Tesla worth approximately $2.9 billion (about 203 billion RMB) for the supply of high-nickel cathode materials from January 2024 to December 2025 [3][4]. - The contract value has drastically reduced to approximately 973,000 KRW, equivalent to about 4,700 RMB, highlighting a severe decline in expected supply [6][11]. Group 2: Production Challenges - The drastic reduction in contract value suggests that the supply volume has changed, pointing to lower-than-expected production of the 4680 battery, which is currently only used for the Cybertruck [6][11]. - The Cybertruck's projected sales for 2024 are estimated to be between 35,000 to 50,000 units, significantly lower than Musk's initial expectations of hundreds of thousands to over a million units [8][10]. Group 3: Technical Issues - The 4680 battery employs a tabless design that requires high precision in laser welding, which has proven to be a significant challenge, affecting production yield [16][20]. - The dry electrode process, intended to reduce costs and improve energy density, faces difficulties in achieving uniform mixing and adhesion, leading to lower production quality and consistency [20][23]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Despite Tesla's efforts to stimulate demand for the Cybertruck, including offering interest-free loans equivalent to a $10,000 discount, sales have not improved significantly, and the entry-level model has been discontinued [10][11]. - The overall sentiment in the market reflects skepticism about the viability of the 4680 battery, with industry experts like CATL's chairman expressing doubts about its success [21][23].