罕见操作！特斯拉公布分析师预测：Q4交付量或下滑15%，税收补贴退坡与竞争加剧冲击需求

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is facing significant sales contraction pressure in Q4 due to the expiration of U.S. tax credits and increasing global competition, with expectations of a second consecutive annual decline in delivery volume [1] Group 1: Q4 Delivery Expectations - Analysts predict Tesla's Q4 delivery volume to be 422,850 units, a 15% year-over-year decline, which is more pessimistic than Bloomberg's previous estimate of 445,061 units, reflecting a 10% drop [1] - This weak quarterly performance is expected to negatively impact the annual performance, with total deliveries for 2025 projected between 1.6 million and 1.65 million units, representing an approximately 8% year-over-year decline [1][4] - The decline in Q4 deliveries is largely attributed to the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit at the end of September, which led buyers to purchase vehicles earlier in Q3 to secure the incentive [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - Despite the introduction of lower-priced versions of the Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan in October, demand remains pressured due to the lack of tax credits and intensified competition from traditional automakers and Chinese EV companies [4] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank indicate that the sales decline will be primarily driven by weak performance in North America and Europe, where competition is expected to increase significantly over the next two years [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - Tesla's proactive disclosure of analyst estimates on its investor relations page is unusual, indicating a more cautious market outlook compared to external surveys [5] - Despite the slowdown in automotive sales, Tesla's stock price has increased by over 14% year-to-date, although this performance lags behind the S&P 500 index's 17% gain [6] - Investor enthusiasm is largely based on Musk's strategic focus on Robotaxi, humanoid robots, and improved autonomous driving technology, although electric vehicle sales remain the primary revenue source [8]