【高端访谈】专访中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛：“灵活高效”将成为2026年货币政策关键词

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy in China, emphasizing the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, as indicated in the recent Central Economic Work Conference and the People's Bank of China's fourth quarter meeting [3][5][13]. Monetary Policy Signals - The shift from "timely RRR cuts and interest rate reductions" to "flexibly and efficiently using RRR cuts and interest rate reductions" suggests that there is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions if necessary, based on domestic and international economic conditions [5][6]. - RRR cuts and interest rate reductions are not the only options for maintaining liquidity; other quantitative adjustment tools can also be utilized [5]. - There is potential for improving the quality and efficiency of monetary policy, such as enhancing the role of large banks in serving the real economy and optimizing the use of structural monetary policy tools [6]. Current Monetary Policy Context - The actual implementation of monetary easing in 2025 appears to be less aggressive than in 2024, with only one RRR cut of 50 basis points compared to two cuts totaling 100 basis points the previous year [7]. - The use of various monetary tools has led to a gradual emergence of counter-cyclical adjustment effects, with a net monetary injection of 591.6 billion yuan in the first eleven months of the year, contrasting with a net withdrawal of 3.09 trillion yuan in the same period last year [8]. Interest Rate Trends - Despite the shift to a moderately loose monetary policy, the yield on 10-year government bonds has rebounded by 16 basis points, attributed to the market's anticipation of monetary easing being priced in earlier [9]. - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans have decreased, indicating a decline in overall financing costs [9]. Policy Coordination - The emphasis on enhancing policy "coordination" reflects a need for a more integrated approach to monetary policy, fiscal policy, and other economic policies to foster domestic demand-driven growth [10][11]. - The integration of existing policies and the introduction of new measures are crucial for effectively releasing policy effects and ensuring consistency across various economic policies [11]. Future Monetary Policy Directions - The focus for 2026 will be on increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, balancing short-term and long-term goals, and ensuring that monetary policy supports key sectors while preventing excessive policy fluctuations [12][13]. - The central bank aims to build a robust monetary policy framework and enhance financial market stability, with a focus on risk prevention and management [14][15].