SMIC(HK:00981) Ge Long Hui·2025-12-30 16:52Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector, particularly SMIC, is experiencing heightened attention due to a market recovery driven by emerging applications like AI, with SMIC's stock showing significant volatility around key technical levels [1][5]. Technical Analysis and Key Price Levels - SMIC's stock price is at a critical juncture, having recovered above the 10-day moving average (approximately 66.64 CNY) and challenging the 30-day moving average (approximately 69.13 CNY) [2]. - Key support levels are identified at 67.2 CNY (first support) and 64.3 CNY (second support), while the first resistance level is at 74.1 CNY, with a potential target of 77.8 CNY if the resistance is breached [2]. Market Sentiment Divergence - Investor sentiment is divided, with bullish views focusing on positive industry trends and bearish perspectives emphasizing technical resistance and micro challenges [5]. - Bullish investors believe that if SMIC can maintain its technical position, it may challenge higher price levels, potentially reaching 100 CNY, despite some institutions lowering short-term profit forecasts [5]. - Cautious investors view the stability above the 30-day moving average as crucial, with some suggesting a possible pullback to around 60 CNY if the stock fails to show a daily divergence signal [5]. Derivative Products for Volatility Management - In light of expected price fluctuations around key levels, warrants and bull/bear certificates are recommended as flexible tools for expressing directional views [6]. - Recent performance of related bullish derivative products has been strong, with notable gains observed in UBS and HSBC bull certificates following SMIC's stock rise [7][8]. Current Derivative Product Recommendations - For bullish investors, recommended products include: - UBS call warrant (20292) with a strike price of 73.85 CNY, noted for its low premium and implied volatility [10]. - Bank of China call warrant (20316) also at 73.85 CNY, offering a higher leverage ratio [10]. - For bearish investors, options include: - Barclays put warrant (21469) and Bank of China put warrant (21097) with strike prices close to the current stock price, providing lower premiums and higher leverage [19].