Tesla(US:TSLA) Zhong Guo Qi Che Bao Wang·2025-12-31 01:43Core Viewpoint - UBS has significantly lowered its Q4 2025 delivery forecast for Tesla from the market expectation of 435,000 units to 415,000 units, representing a year-over-year decline of 16% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 17% [1]. Group 1: Delivery Forecast and Market Conditions - UBS's downward revision of Tesla's delivery forecast indicates significant pressure on the company, despite the long timeline before the conditions for Musk's high compensation package are evaluated [1]. - Tesla's delivery volumes have shown fluctuations across major markets, including the U.S., Europe, and China, which has contributed to analysts' pessimism [4]. - In the U.S. market, Tesla's delivery volume for October and November was 80,000 units, a decrease of 23% compared to the first two months of Q4 2024 and a 26% decline year-over-year [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Profitability - Tesla's total revenue in Q1 2025 decreased by 9% year-over-year, with GAAP net profit at $409 million and an operating margin plummeting to 2.1% [5]. - UBS's financial projections for Tesla indicate a decline in EBIT and net income, with expected EBIT of $6.101 billion and net income of $5.403 billion for 2025 [6]. Group 3: Product Challenges and Consumer Sentiment - The Model Y has been reported as the "least reliable model" in the 2026 TÜV report, with the highest defect rate recorded in the past decade, raising concerns about quality [5]. - The "phantom braking" phenomenon in Tesla's FSD system has led to legal challenges and increased scrutiny regarding the safety of the autonomous driving technology [5]. Group 4: Future Growth Opportunities - Tesla's FSD system is crucial for the Robotaxi business, which has begun operations in Austin, Texas, with plans to expand to additional cities [8]. - The company aims to produce the Cybercab at a cost below $30,000, with operational costs as low as $0.20 per mile, potentially transforming the transportation industry [8]. - Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, is set to enter mass production, with plans for a third-generation model by the end of 2025, which could redefine human-robot collaboration and open new market opportunities [9].