Labubu价格崩了，结局可能早已定下

Core Insights - The significant drop in Labubu's second-hand market prices and the decline in Pop Mart's stock prices have sparked widespread discussion on social media, often interpreted as a "bubble burst," but this view may be overly simplistic [1] - The initial success of Pop Mart was driven by a "controlled scarcity" model, transforming ordinary toys into collectible items through blind box mechanisms and limited releases [1][4] - The rapid introduction of new series and increased market supply diluted the perceived uniqueness of previously scarce items, leading to a decrease in their value [3][4] Market Dynamics - The premium prices for Labubu collectibles were contingent on a continuous willingness from buyers to pay high prices [2] - As new products were launched too quickly, the perceived scarcity diminished, creating a challenge for early speculators who relied on rising prices to sell their inventory [3][6] - The rise and fall of Labubu's prices mirrored the formation and collapse of speculative bubbles in financial markets, as described by economist Hyman Minsky [5] Consumer Behavior - Initially, buyers were attracted to the surprise and collection aspects of blind boxes, but as prices rose, an investment mentality took over [11][12] - The current price decline is prompting a psychological reset among consumers, shifting focus back to personal enjoyment of the product rather than potential financial returns [13][14] - Consumers are becoming more rational, calculating the expected value of collectibles, which is facilitated by increased price transparency on second-hand platforms [15][16] Industry Implications - The cooling of the Labubu market is indicative of a broader industry value reassessment, with other brands experiencing similar price adjustments [16] - The reliance on "scarcity narratives" and speculative value is deemed unsustainable, suggesting a need for a shift towards product quality, design innovation, and emotional connection [16] - Future trends may include clearer differentiation between high-end limited editions and mass-market products, a focus on storytelling in IP management, and evolving sales models that combine blind boxes with other purchasing options [16] Cultural Context - The social value of collectible toys is dynamic; as products become more common, their status as symbols of identity and taste diminishes [7][8] - The challenge for Pop Mart lies in balancing the need for new product launches to sustain revenue growth while avoiding the dilution of individual IP value [8][10] - Unlike established IPs like Disney, which have deep cultural narratives, Labubu lacks a robust story background, affecting its long-term sustainability [9][10] Conclusion - The fluctuations in Labubu's prices reflect normal market behavior and highlight the rapid dissemination of information in the social media era [20] - The case illustrates the limitations of artificially created scarcity and the eventual return to fundamental values when speculation dominates the market [20] - For the industry to mature, the focus should shift from investment potential to genuine enjoyment of products, fostering a healthier market environment [20]