DeepMind内部视角揭秘，Scaling Law没死，算力即一切

Core Insights - The year 2025 marks a significant turning point for AI, transitioning from curiosity in 2024 to profound societal impact [1] - Predictions from industry leaders suggest that advancements in AI will continue to accelerate, with Sam Altman forecasting the emergence of systems capable of original insights by 2026 [1][3] - The debate around the Scaling Law continues, with some experts asserting its ongoing relevance and potential for further evolution [12][13] Group 1: Scaling Law and Computational Power - The Scaling Law has shown resilience, with computational power for training AI models growing at an exponential rate of four to five times annually over the past fifteen years [12][13] - Research indicates a clear power-law relationship between performance and computational power, suggesting that a tenfold increase in computational resources can yield approximately three times the performance gain [13][15] - The concept of "AI factories" is emerging, emphasizing the need for substantial computational resources and infrastructure to support AI advancements [27][31] Group 2: Breakthroughs in AI Capabilities - The SIMA 2 project at DeepMind demonstrates a leap from understanding to action, showcasing a general embodied intelligence capable of operating in complex 3D environments [35][39] - The ability of AI models to exhibit emergent capabilities, such as logical reasoning and complex instruction following, is linked to increased computational power [16][24] - By the end of 2025, AI's ability to complete tasks has significantly improved, with projections indicating that by 2028, AI may independently handle tasks that currently require weeks of human expertise [41] Group 3: Future Challenges and Considerations - The establishment of the Post-AGI team at DeepMind reflects the anticipation of challenges that will arise once AGI is achieved, particularly regarding the management of autonomous, self-evolving intelligent agents [43][46] - The ongoing discussion about the implications of AI's rapid advancement highlights the need for society to rethink human value in a world where intelligent systems may operate at near-zero costs [43][46] - The physical limitations of power consumption and cooling solutions are becoming critical considerations for the future of AI infrastructure [31][32]