西南证券：2025年创新药迎来β行情 2026年创新药行情将进入精选个股阶段

Group 1: Core Insights - The report from Southwest Securities indicates that by early 2025, Hong Kong-listed companies will begin to achieve business development (BD) milestones, with innovative drugs leading the market surge [1] - The Chinese innovative drug sector is expected to accelerate following the government's support for drug pricing mechanisms and the development of innovative drugs and medical devices, as highlighted in the March government work report [1] - The innovative drug sector is predicted to transition from a broad market rally to a selective stock picking phase by 2026, with a focus on three key areas: overseas expansion, brain-computer interfaces, and AI in healthcare [1] Group 2: Overseas Expansion - By December 5, 2025, the number of BD projects for Chinese innovative drugs going overseas reached 166, an increase of 54 projects compared to the entire year of 2024 [1] - The upfront payments for these projects totaled $6.3 billion, representing a growth of over 199% from 2024 [1] - The total amount for overseas projects reached $141.97 billion, an increase of over 136.8% from 2024, with over 52% of the molecules in early clinical stages [1] Group 3: Brain-Computer Interfaces - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the development of brain-computer interfaces as a new economic growth point, with several provinces introducing fee standards and including some projects in medical insurance [2] - The application of brain-computer interface technology is primarily focused on medical rehabilitation, particularly for patients with stroke and spinal cord injuries, with potential expansion into education, entertainment, and industrial sectors [2] Group 4: AI in Healthcare - Five national departments issued guidelines to promote and regulate the application of AI in healthcare, setting clear short-term (by 2027) and long-term (by 2030) goals across eight major areas [3] - AI in healthcare is entering a new phase of technological integration and industry restructuring, with key applications including AI health management, clinical decision support systems, medical imaging diagnostics, surgical robotics, genetic sequencing, and drug development [3] Group 5: Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Heng Rui Medicine, BeiGene, Mindray Medical, United Imaging Healthcare, and others, indicating a diverse portfolio in the healthcare sector [4]