Tesla(US:TSLA) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-02 00:17Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock surged over 11% by the end of 2025, driven by investor confidence in Elon Musk's vision for autonomous vehicles, despite disappointing sales figures and a projected decline in deliveries [1][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Tesla is expected to announce approximately 440,900 vehicle deliveries for Q4, representing an 11% year-over-year decline, with a more pessimistic forecast suggesting a 15% drop [1]. - Analysts have drastically reduced their 2026 delivery forecasts for Tesla from over 3 million vehicles two years ago to around 1.8 million [1]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are focused on Tesla's long-term prospects rather than short-term performance, although concerns about financial headwinds are growing [2]. - Despite the challenges, some investors remain optimistic that maintaining stability in the automotive business could satisfy market expectations [10]. Group 3: Market Challenges - Tesla's sales have been impacted by production line upgrades for the Model Y and backlash against Musk's political actions [4]. - The cessation of federal tax credits for electric vehicle purchases in the U.S. is expected to create further challenges for Tesla in 2026 [10]. Group 4: Competition - Competitors like BYD are outpacing Tesla in sales, particularly in China, where Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system has not gained regulatory approval [6]. - Analysts predict that BYD's electric vehicle sales will surpass Tesla's globally for the fifth consecutive quarter [6].