Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the dairy industry is experiencing a significant reduction in cow inventory, which is expected to lead to a recovery in raw milk prices by 2026 as supply and demand balance out [1][3] - The national cow inventory has decreased by 540,000 heads, a decline of 8.1%, over the past 20 months, with an acceleration in the monthly reduction rate [1] - The dairy processing sector is expanding its deep processing capacity to absorb raw milk, with products like cheese and milk powder consuming several times more raw milk than liquid milk, thus playing a crucial role in market supply balance [1] Group 2 - The average wholesale price of beef in China has increased from 57 RMB/kg in February to 66 RMB/kg in December, a rise of 15.79%, which is expected to enhance the profitability of culling cows [2] - The company anticipates that the profit from culling cows will increase as beef prices rise, with projected profit increments from culling dairy cows estimated at 127 million, 213 million, and 378 million RMB for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [2] - The company forecasts revenue growth from 20.805 billion RMB in 2025 to 22.982 billion RMB in 2027, with net profit expected to rise significantly from 512 million RMB in 2025 to 2.856 billion RMB in 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]
优然牧业(9858.HK)：奶价复苏叠加牛肉价格反转 公司利润有望加速释放