AI重塑人力格局，摩根士丹利预计欧洲银行到2030年将裁员20万人

Core Insights - The European banking sector is undergoing significant workforce restructuring due to the accelerated integration of AI and the continued reduction of physical branches, with Morgan Stanley predicting a potential reduction of about 10% of jobs, affecting over 200,000 employees by 2030 [1][3] - The job cuts are primarily concentrated in central service departments such as back-office, risk management, and compliance, with approximately 21,200 positions at risk out of a total workforce of 2.12 million [1] - Several banks, including ABN Amro and Société Générale, are actively pursuing workforce reductions, with ABN Amro planning to cut about 20% of its staff by 2028 [3] Industry Trends - Banks are increasingly viewing AI as a catalyst for business restructuring, especially under pressure from investors and lagging return on equity compared to U.S. peers [3] - Morgan Stanley highlights that AI presents a rare opportunity to improve cost-to-income ratios, as traditional cost-cutting measures have become less effective [3] - The combined effect of digitalization and AI is expected to significantly impact the European banking landscape, particularly in countries like France and Germany, where retail banking is more prevalent and efficiency metrics are weaker [3] Technological Adoption - UBS has begun utilizing AI to virtualize analyst roles and send video updates to clients, indicating a shift in operational practices within the banking sector [3] - The banking industry has yet to fully realize the efficiency potential of AI, as noted by UBS's European banking research head [3] Leadership and Training - Some banking leaders, like JPMorgan's co-CEO for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, emphasize the importance of maintaining foundational skills while adopting AI, warning against prioritizing automation at the expense of core competencies [4] - JPMorgan is focusing on balancing efficiency improvements with talent development to ensure that younger employees retain essential skills such as cash flow modeling and price-to-earnings ratios [4]