白银逼空行情结束了？

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has raised the initial margin requirements for COMEX silver futures for the third time in two weeks, leading to a decline in silver prices to around $71 per ounce. This move is part of a broader trend of speculative capital entering the silver futures market amid tight physical silver supply [2][3][19]. Group 1: Margin Adjustments and Price Movements - CME has increased the initial margin for non-high-risk silver futures to $32,500 per contract and for high-risk positions to $35,750 per contract [2]. - Following these adjustments, COMEX silver futures prices fell from a peak of $82.67 per ounce to approximately $71 per ounce [19]. - The price of silver futures has seen an 83% increase since November 2025, driven by speculation and tight physical supply [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current silver squeeze began in October 2025, triggered by rumors of significant purchases in the London market, leading to a shortage of physical silver [4][5]. - Major banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are involved in both physical silver transactions and holding large short positions in COMEX silver futures, creating a complex market dynamic [6][8]. - The structural supply-demand imbalance in the silver market has resulted in a cumulative supply gap of approximately 790 million to 820 million ounces over the past five years [14]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Speculation - Speculative interest has surged, with social media discussions amplifying the "squeeze" sentiment, leading to increased participation from retail investors [3][10]. - The trading volume of bullish options on major silver ETFs has reached levels not seen since 2021, indicating heightened investor interest [10]. - A significant transfer of silver from registered to eligible inventory on COMEX has further signaled tightening supply conditions [8]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical instances of silver squeezes occurred in the late 1970s and early 2010s, often curtailed by margin increases and monetary policy shifts [20][21]. - Current market analysts suggest that a combination of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and further margin increases from CME may be necessary to address the ongoing silver squeeze [21]. - Despite the recent price corrections, some analysts believe that silver prices could still exceed $100 per ounce in the short term due to continued speculative interest [16][21].