Wall Street analysts set Tesla stock price for the next 12 months

Core Viewpoint - Tesla reported weaker-than-expected vehicle deliveries for Q4 2025, leading to cautious sentiment on Wall Street regarding the stock's future performance [1][3]. Delivery and Production Performance - Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles in Q4 2025, below Wall Street's expectation of approximately 426,000 [1]. - Quarterly deliveries declined by roughly 16% year-over-year from 495,570 vehicles, while production fell 5.5% from 459,445 units in Q4 2024 [2]. - For the full year, Tesla delivered 1.64 million vehicles, down from 1.79 million in 2024, representing an 8.6% annual decline [2]. Market Reaction - Following the delivery report, Tesla shares closed 2.59% lower, ending the session at $438, although the stock remains up over 6% year-over-year [1][3]. - Wall Street analysts have turned more cautious, with a mean price target of $393.90, indicating a downside of just over 10% [6]. Analyst Ratings and Insights - Morgan Stanley maintained an 'Equalweight' rating with a $425 price target, noting that while deliveries missed broader expectations, they exceeded buy-side estimates [7]. - Truist Securities kept a 'Hold' rating and adjusted the price target to $439 from $444, citing weaker deliveries and limited updates on automotive initiatives [8]. - Wedbush reiterated an 'Outperform' rating with a $600 price target, arguing that fourth-quarter deliveries were better than feared and highlighting energy storage as a key driver of upside [9].