Hengrui Pharma(SH:600276) 2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2026-01-04 10:21Core Insights - China's innovative drug transaction value has surpassed that of the United States, indicating a growing global recognition of domestic innovations [1][3] - The total transaction amount for outbound licensing of innovative drugs from China is projected to reach $135.655 billion by December 31, 2025, with a significant increase in both upfront payments and transaction numbers compared to 2024 [1][3] - The surge in outbound licensing reflects the international community's acknowledgment of the value of Chinese innovative drugs, driven by a series of reforms and policies encouraging innovation [1][4] Transaction Overview - In 2025, the total amount of outbound licensing transactions for Chinese innovative drugs exceeded $1,300 billion, accounting for 49% of the global total, significantly surpassing the $519 billion recorded in 2024 [3][4] - The first transaction of 2025 involved Innovent Biologics partnering with Roche, which included an upfront payment of $80 million and potential milestone payments of up to $1 billion [3] - Notable transactions include a record upfront payment of $1.25 billion from 3SBio to Pfizer for a global licensing agreement, highlighting the increasing scale of these deals [3][4] Market Dynamics - The demand for Chinese innovative assets is expected to persist as multinational corporations (MNCs) face patent cliffs and cost-cutting pressures [7][8] - The global pharmaceutical supply chain is undergoing significant adjustments, with a shift in focus towards collaborative development and commercialization models, such as the Co-Co model [9][10] - Chinese companies are increasingly recognized for their capabilities in developing innovative therapies, moving from being fast followers to first-in-class innovators [6][7] Future Outlook - The Chinese innovative drug sector is anticipated to experience a critical sales growth phase starting in 2026, transitioning from a focus on research and development to performance realization [5][6] - The industry is expected to face challenges in maintaining the momentum of high-value transactions, with a potential shift in focus towards clinical value and unmet medical needs [12][14] - Regulatory support from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) is expected to enhance the development of innovative drugs, particularly those with new mechanisms and targets [14]