保险Ⅱ行业深度报告：低利率时代的重逢——中国分红险发展的前世今生-东吴证券

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that dividend insurance is transitioning to become a key focus in the life insurance industry, driven by regulatory encouragement and market demand in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2][12]. - Dividend insurance is characterized as a floating income product that combines protection and investment attributes, with dividends derived from positive surpluses generated by interest rate differences, mortality differences, and expense differences, with at least 70% of these surpluses distributed to policyholders [1][2][21]. - The development of dividend insurance in mainland China has experienced several phases, including a peak in the early 2010s when it accounted for 75% of industry premiums, followed by a decline from 2013 to 2023 due to market reforms, and a resurgence since 2024 as regulatory policies have favored floating income products [1][2][8][12]. Group 2 - The current transformation of dividend insurance has shown significant results, with over 50% of new policies in the first half of 2025 being dividend insurance, and China Pacific Insurance exceeding 90% [2][12]. - The core logic behind this transformation is that dividend insurance has lower rigid costs, stronger stability under new accounting standards, and shorter effective liability durations, which can effectively alleviate interest rate loss pressures [2][12]. - The expected increase in the proportion of dividend insurance in new policies will enhance the reliability of life insurance embedded value (EV) and gradually increase the proportion of equity allocation in insurance funds, benefiting from long-term stock market returns [2][12]. Group 3 - In overseas markets, floating income products dominate, particularly in mature markets like Europe and the U.S., where the focus has shifted towards universal and investment-linked insurance, while in Hong Kong, dividend insurance remains a core product with significant market share [2][12][4]. - The experience from overseas markets suggests that in a low-interest-rate environment, there are substantial growth opportunities for floating income products, and dividend insurance is seen as a more suitable solution for domestic investors in China [2][12]. - The industry faces challenges such as long-term interest rate declines, equity market volatility, and pressure on new policy premiums, but the shift towards dividend insurance is expected to reshape the liability structure of the industry and promote high-quality development [2][12].