九龙仓置业跌超4% 香港零售管理协会预计今年上半年零售额持平

Core Viewpoint - Kowloon Warehouse Properties (01997) experienced a decline of over 4%, currently trading at HKD 24.16 with a transaction volume of HKD 27.19 million [1] Group 1: Retail Industry Performance - The Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department reported that the provisional estimate for total retail sales value in November 2025 was HKD 33.7 billion, representing a 6.5% increase compared to the same month in 2024 [1] - The revised estimate for total retail sales value in October 2025 showed a 6.9% increase compared to October 2024 [1] - The Chairman of the Hong Kong Retail Management Association, Cheung Kiu On-yee, anticipates that retail sales in the first half of 2026 will remain stable, with continued spending from residents traveling to the mainland [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Forecast - JPMorgan indicated a slight slowdown in retail sales in November, potentially influenced by the emotional impact of the fire at Hong Fu Court in Tai Po at the end of November [1] - The bank expects December retail sales to show low to mid-single-digit growth, reflecting a slight slowdown due to a potential decline in the strong momentum of electronic products and a minor slowdown in the year-on-year growth of inbound tourists [1] - Despite the challenges, the bank believes retail consumption will continue to benefit from the wealth effect driven by the stock and property markets, as well as support from the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar [1] - JPMorgan maintains a constructive view on Kowloon Warehouse Properties, rating it as "Overweight," citing signs that non-essential retail is emerging from a trough [1]