SCS(SH:601555) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-05 04:11Core Viewpoint - Despite the market's general expectation that the marginal increase in fiscal funds may slow down in 2026, fiscal spending could still exceed expectations due to two main factors: a rebound in prices leading to increased fiscal revenue and a significant amount of unspent fiscal funds from 2025 that can be carried over to the next year [1][2][3] Group 1: Fiscal Spending Dynamics - The fiscal deficit rate may not increase, yet the growth rate of fiscal spending can still rise. Historical data shows instances where the deficit rate did not increase, but spending growth rebounded significantly [1][5][6] - The potential for "no increase in deficit and accelerated spending" may arise from two unexpected sources: a rebound in price growth leading to increased fiscal revenue and unspent funds from 2025 forming a substantial carryover [2][11] Group 2: Revenue from Price Rebound - A rebound in price growth could lead to an increase in tax revenue by approximately 260 billion yuan. The indirect tax system in China is highly sensitive to price fluctuations, with major tax channels such as VAT, additional taxes, corporate income tax, and resource tax accounting for nearly 67% of total tax revenue [2][23] - Historical experience indicates that a 1 percentage point increase in PPI typically results in a 0.5-0.8 percentage point increase in tax revenue growth, suggesting that a projected 1.8 percentage point rebound in PPI could yield around 260 billion yuan in additional tax revenue [2][23] Group 3: Fiscal Surplus from Unspent Funds - The fiscal surplus for 2025 is expected to exceed 500 billion yuan, with a cumulative increase in fiscal deposits reaching 2.04 trillion yuan in the first eleven months, marking a historical high [3][25][27] - The slow progress of fiscal spending in 2025, particularly in infrastructure-related areas, has contributed to this surplus. The focus on debt replacement and settling government debts has limited direct investment in traditional infrastructure projects [3][27]