Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the new import beef quota system will alleviate domestic supply pressure, and combined with the ongoing reduction of domestic cattle, beef prices in China are expected to continue rising, directly benefiting livestock companies such as YouRan Agriculture [1][2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting January 1, 2026, a safeguard measure will be implemented for imported beef in the form of "country-specific quotas and additional tariffs," with a 55% additional tariff on quantities exceeding the quota, lasting for three years [2][3] Group 3 - The safeguard measure is a response to the significant increase in imported beef, which has caused serious harm to the domestic industry, with the quota for 2026 set at 2.688 million tons, including specific allocations for Brazil (1.106 million tons), Argentina (0.511 million tons), Uruguay (0.324 million tons), and Australia (0.205 million tons) [3] Group 4 - In 2024, China's beef import volume is projected to be 2.87 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Australia accounting for 46.6%, 20.6%, 8.4%, and 7.4% of imports respectively; the domestic beef production is estimated at 7.79 million tons, indicating that imports exceed domestic production by over 30% [4] - The ongoing reduction of breeding cows since 2025 has tightened supply, pushing beef prices upward, with the price recorded at 53.5 yuan/kg on December 26, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.4%; the quota system is expected to further optimize domestic supply and positively impact beef prices [4]
国元国际：对进口牛肉实施保障措施落地 建议关注优然牧业