JP MORGAN CHASE(US:JPM) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-05 08:22Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that despite JPMorgan Chase's (JPM.US) guidance for $105 billion in spending by 2026 exceeding market expectations of $101-102 billion, the bank is expected to achieve steady growth in Q4 2025 and throughout 2026 due to a favorable fee income environment. However, the current valuation at 3 times tangible book value reflects its industry-leading performance, resulting in a neutral rating with a target price of $325 [1] Group 1 - JPMorgan's higher spending expectations for 2026 are attributed to strong anticipated growth in fee income and a preference for long-term investments when market opportunities arise [1] - Citigroup has adjusted its forecasts in response to the higher spending guidance but maintains overall profit predictions largely unchanged, believing previous fee income estimates may have been overly conservative [1] - As the market gradually digests the spending guidance, industry consensus expectations may be adjusted downward, creating a more favorable environment for JPMorgan's subsequent performance [1] Group 2 - Citigroup forecasts JPMorgan's adjusted earnings per share to be $21.10 in 2026, increasing to $22.95 in 2027, with net interest income expected to reach $101.91 billion and fee and commission income projected at $93.99 billion, leading to total operating profit of approximately $195.90 billion [2] - Growth drivers are primarily from corporate and investment banking, with expectations of strong momentum in banking and trading revenues in 2026, allowing JPMorgan to benefit from this favorable environment [2] - The company's loan and deposit business is expected to achieve a year-over-year growth of 3%-4%, with an estimated cumulative interest rate beta of about 54% by the end of 2026, slightly below the beta level during the rate hike cycle [2]