UBS(US:UBS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-05 17:26Group 1 - Venezuela's current oil production of approximately 1 million barrels per day accounts for less than 1% of global supply, with key facilities like Jose port and Amuay refinery unaffected, indicating low risk of substantial supply disruption [1][2] - Oil prices in the Asia-Pacific market rebounded slightly, with Brent crude futures rising by 0.3% to $60.92 per barrel and WTI crude futures increasing by 0.2% to $57.43 per barrel, despite concerns over supply surplus [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that by 2026, global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.8 million barrels per day, marking a historic oversupply record [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the market's focus may shift from concerns over supply disruption to expectations regarding the recovery speed of Venezuela's production capacity and the return of U.S. energy companies to the market [3] - Goldman Sachs maintains its price forecasts for Brent crude at an average of $56 per barrel and WTI at $52 per barrel for 2026, indicating limited short-term impact from Venezuela's situation on oil prices [3] - RBC Capital's commodity research head suggests that a complete lifting of sanctions on Venezuela could potentially release hundreds of thousands of barrels per day within 12 months under an orderly transition [3] Group 3 - The geopolitical uncertainty has increased the appeal of gold and other precious metals as safe-haven assets, leading to a rise in their prices [4] - UBS forecasts that global central bank gold net purchases will reach 950 tons by 2026, up from a previous estimate of 900 tons, indicating strong demand for gold [5] - UBS has raised its target prices for gold in March, June, and September 2026 from $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce, with a slight expected decline to $4,800 per ounce by the end of 2026 [5]