台积电的真正瓶颈

Group 1: TSMC's 2nm Technology - TSMC is set to begin mass production of its 2nm technology in Q4 2025, marking a significant advancement in transistor architecture with the introduction of GAA (Gate-All-Around) transistors, which is the most substantial change since the FinFET technology was introduced in 2011 [1][2] - The 2nm process will enhance wafer production density by 30% to 50%, leading to a prolonged capital expenditure cycle, with SEMI predicting it will reach $156 billion by 2027 [1] - TSMC's N2 technology will provide performance and power efficiency improvements across all process nodes, addressing the growing demand for energy-efficient computing [1][2] Group 2: Performance Metrics - Compared to the 3nm N3E process, TSMC's 2nm technology will increase speed by 10% to 15% at the same power level, while reducing power consumption by 25% to 30% and increasing chip density by over 15% [2] - TSMC plans to launch the N2P process as an extension of the 2nm family, targeting mass production in H2 2026 for applications in smartphones and high-performance computing [2] Group 3: Advanced Packaging Challenges - The real bottleneck in the semiconductor industry is shifting from transistor density to advanced packaging technologies, particularly CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) [3][17] - TSMC's CEO confirmed that supply remains tight and is expected to continue until 2025, with advanced packaging prices increasing by 10-20% annually, while logic wafer prices only rise by 5% [23] Group 4: CoWoS Capacity and Market Dynamics - TSMC is accelerating the expansion of its CoWoS capacity to meet the surging demand for AI chips, with projections for capacity to reach 125K wafers per month by the end of 2026 and further increase to 170K wafers per month by the end of 2027 [24] - NVIDIA is expected to secure over 70% of the CoWoS-L allocation, creating a structural advantage, while other major players like Broadcom and AMD are also vying for the remaining capacity [23][36] Group 5: Future Roadmap and Innovations - TSMC's roadmap includes the introduction of new technologies such as CoPoS (Chip-on-Package-on-Substrate) expected to be implemented post-2027, aimed at improving packaging area utilization and production efficiency [24] - The transition from FinFET to GAA technology signifies a generational shift in semiconductor manufacturing complexity, with a structural demand increase of 30-50% per wafer startup [36]