KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-07 00:22Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai's flagship product, Feitian Moutai, has significantly declined, leading to a transformation in the market dynamics and the company's strategy to adapt to changing consumer preferences and economic conditions [5][19][22]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On January 1, 2026, Feitian Moutai was sold at a price of 1499 yuan, with all inventory sold out within half an hour, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [1]. - The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, marking a significant decline from previous years when it was difficult to purchase at retail prices [5][6]. - The average inventory turnover days in the industry have increased to 900 days, reflecting a growing inventory pressure and a shift from "incremental competition" to "stock competition" [10]. Group 2: Dealer Sentiment - Dealers, who previously held large inventories without concern, are now selling as quickly as possible due to daily price fluctuations, indicating a loss of confidence in holding stock [4][7]. - Many dealers are experiencing losses due to the disparity between the purchase price and the current market price, leading to a chain reaction of selling pressure on Feitian Moutai [7][8]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The younger generation is moving away from traditional drinking culture, favoring lower-alcohol beverages and seeking personalized experiences, which is impacting Moutai's market position [9]. - A report indicates that beer, fruit wine, and cocktails are the top three alcoholic beverages consumed by young people, with white liquor only accounting for 31.8% of their preferences [9]. Group 4: Company Strategy - Moutai is attempting to diversify its product line to meet varying consumer demands, but new product launches have faced significant price drops shortly after release, indicating misalignment with market expectations [11][14]. - The company is shifting its strategy from selling products to promoting a lifestyle, introducing a service model that includes cultural experiences, but this has yet to yield significant revenue [15][17]. - Moutai has announced a transition to a new sales model that eliminates the traditional distribution system, aiming to reduce speculation and encourage dealers to actively engage in market development [18][21]. Group 5: Leadership Changes - The recent leadership change at Moutai, with the appointment of Chen Hua, raises questions about the company's ability to navigate the current market challenges and implement necessary reforms [20][22]. - Chen Hua's approach includes acknowledging the industry's shift to stock competition and making decisive changes to the company's operational strategies, but the long-term success of these measures remains uncertain [21][22].