国海证券：煤价改善&高股息 煤炭板块攻守兼备

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the supply constraints in the coal mining industry remain unchanged, while demand may experience fluctuations, leading to price volatility and dynamic rebalancing. By 2026, the supply-demand relationship is expected to improve, supported by policies, with coal prices potentially rising to a central level of around 750 CNY for thermal coal and 1550 CNY for coking coal, indicating a recovery in industry profitability [1][2]. Group 2 - The review of thermal coal shows a V-shaped price trend for the year, with the average price at the port expected to be 697 CNY/ton in 2025, down 158 CNY/ton year-on-year. The price fell to nearly 600 CNY/ton due to oversupply, but a recovery began in July with production constraints leading to a price peak of 834 CNY/ton in November [1]. - The review of coking coal also reflects a V-shaped price trend, with the average price at the port projected to be 1513 CNY/ton in 2025, down 509 CNY/ton year-on-year. The price rebounded quickly due to supply constraints and strong demand, despite fluctuations in the fourth quarter [2]. - For 2026, the supply-demand balance is expected to tighten, with thermal coal prices projected to rise to 750 CNY/ton and coking coal prices to 1550 CNY/ton. The demand for thermal coal is expected to grow by 0.6%, while coking coal demand may decline by 0.5% due to real estate drag but supported by resilient demand in construction and manufacturing [2].