南山铝业国际逆市涨近11% 印尼电解铝投产节奏存在不确定性 公司具备显著协同成本优势

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum (600219) has seen a significant stock price increase of nearly 11% in a bearish market, with a cumulative rise of over 20% this month, indicating strong market interest and potential growth prospects [1] Industry Summary - The global electrolytic aluminum market is currently in a tight balance, with Indonesia being a key marginal supplier. Despite Indonesia's plans for substantial future capacity, the readiness of power supply may lag, potentially delaying production ramp-up [1] - If electrolytic aluminum prices remain stable above $3,000 per ton, the likelihood of planned projects coming online increases significantly. Conversely, if prices fall below $2,800 per ton, future supply releases from Indonesia could decrease by over 40% compared to expectations [1] Company Summary - Nanshan Aluminum's planned electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia's Bintan Industrial Park aims for a capacity of 1 million tons per year, forming a core part of its integrated "alumina-electrolytic aluminum" industry chain strategy. The first phase targets a construction of 250,000 tons per year, with an investment of approximately 6.063 billion yuan [1] - The project benefits from a solid foundation, as Nanshan Aluminum has already established an alumina plant in the same park with a total designed capacity of 4 million tons per year, ensuring ample raw material supply and significant cost synergy advantages [1]