Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive market response for YouRan Agriculture (09858), with a stock price increase of 4.56% to HKD 5.27 and a trading volume of HKD 62.75 million [1] - The Ministry of Commerce recently announced the results of the beef import ruling, implementing "country-specific quotas and additional tariffs," with a quota of 2.688 million tons for 2026 and a 55% tariff on excess imports [1] - CITIC Securities predicts a cumulative decline of over 10% in the cattle inventory for the meat industry in 2024 and the first half of 2025, which will impact beef output in the second half of 2025 to 2026, alongside a decrease in import volumes, leading to tighter supply and potential price increases for beef and live cattle [1] Group 2 - In terms of raw milk, the ongoing reduction in dairy cow inventory, coupled with increased demand from deep processing of dairy products and previous EU anti-subsidy rulings, is expected to support a rebound in milk prices, indicating a potential synchronization of the beef and raw milk cycles that could enhance profitability for livestock companies [1] - YouRan Agriculture is the largest raw milk supplier in China, operating 100 farms and raising approximately 620,000 dairy cows, with an expected raw milk production of about 3.74 million tons in 2024, accounting for 12.1% of the national total [1] - The company has a leading position in the upstream industry, being the largest supplier of ruminant feed in China, and its subsidiary, Saike Xing, is the largest dairy cow breeding enterprise in the country [1] - YouRan Agriculture benefits from its major shareholder, Yili Group, which is expected to contribute 95% of the company's raw milk revenue in 2024, with the company accounting for about 40% of Yili's overall raw milk procurement [1]
优然牧业涨超4% 牛肉原奶周期有望共振 牧业公司盈利改善有支撑