零跑汽车(9863.HK)：一汽溢价入股助力零跑新征程

Core Insights - Leap Motor celebrated its 10th anniversary on December 28, 2025, and announced a strategic partnership with FAW, acquiring a 5% stake for approximately 3.74 billion yuan, aiming to become a world-class automaker [1][2] - The company reported a total sales volume of 597,000 units for 2025, marking a significant milestone with expectations for its first annual profit [1][2] - Leap Motor's long-term goals include achieving sales of 1 million units by 2026 and 4 million units in the future, supported by a new vehicle cycle and strategic collaborations [1][3] Company Development - From 2015 to 2025, Leap Motor transitioned from an IT cross-border player to a leading new energy vehicle manufacturer, with cumulative deliveries exceeding 1.2 million units and a peak monthly sales of over 70,000 units [2] - The company has established 17 major component factories, achieving a 65% self-manufacturing ratio for core components, which provides a cost advantage of approximately 10% compared to external procurement [2] - The LEAP platform allows for high component commonality, significantly reducing R&D and manufacturing costs for models like C10 and C16 [2] Strategic Partnerships - FAW's investment highlights strategic recognition of Leap Motor, with funds allocated for R&D, operational capital, and brand development [2] - A collaboration agreement was signed between FAW and Leap Motor for joint development of powertrains, with the first model expected to be produced in 2026 [3] Future Outlook - Leap Motor aims to transition from a follower to a leader in the automotive industry, with a focus on technology leadership, product matrix expansion, and a cooperative ecosystem [3] - The company plans to host annual technology days starting in 2026 to enhance supply chain integration and factory construction [3] Financial Projections - Adjusted sales forecasts for 2025-2027 are 600,000, 1,040,000, and 1,420,000 units respectively, with revenue projections of 68.3 billion, 123.5 billion, and 168.8 billion yuan [3] - The net profit estimates for the same period are 660 million, 5.11 billion, and 8.25 billion yuan, reflecting a significant adjustment in expectations [3] - The target price for Leap Motor is set at 83.69 HKD, reflecting a 30% premium on the estimated valuation due to anticipated growth and profitability [3]