国盛证券：政策鼓励出游和文体消费 出行链和会展体育迎板块机遇

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities emphasizes the importance of the Hainan sector and the elasticity of sub-sectors during the Spring Festival peak season in the short term, while mid-term prospects focus on new consumption, growth potential, transformation reforms, overseas expansion, and favorable policies. Group 1: Short-term Focus - The Hainan sector is highlighted due to the impact of the closure policy and the upcoming consumption peak season, with recommendations to focus on duty-free (supported by policies and improving fundamentals), cross-border e-commerce (Black Friday and Christmas promotions), certain scenic spots (ice and snow economy), supermarkets, and gold jewelry during the Spring Festival [1] - The cyclical sectors such as duty-free, hotels, and catering have shown month-on-month improvements, suggesting continued observation and validation [1] Group 2: Mid-term Outlook - By 2026, the report suggests maintaining focus on overseas expansion, particularly on leading brands, while also looking at innovative and transformative sub-sectors within the domestic consumption field, such as new cultural tourism and new retail [1] Group 3: Policy Impact - The joint issuance of the "Opinions" by various government bodies encourages grassroots unions to conduct up to four spring and autumn travel activities annually, and to support the purchase of annual tickets for scenic spots and the distribution of cultural tourism consumption vouchers [2] - The "Opinions" aim to expand the scale of employee cultural and sports activities, enhance cultural supply, and optimize the structure of sports development, thereby promoting employee consumption [2] Group 4: Consumption Trends - Data from Qunar indicates that during the autumn holiday in November 2025, ticket bookings in Sichuan province increased by 3.4 times year-on-year, with several popular scenic spots seeing ticket sales rise by over 100% [3] - During the snow holiday, hotel bookings in the Altay region increased by 30% year-on-year, and the search volume for "Altay skiing" rose by 43% [3] Group 5: Future Opportunities - The increase in statutory holidays and various policy documents promoting vacation rights and optimizing student holiday arrangements are expected to significantly boost cultural and sports consumption, creating new development opportunities for sectors such as duty-free, hotels, tourism, and sports [4]